The Futures / Inter Market Report

Trading the World’s Markets                            

March 9, 2008

                                            
Matthew Caruso, CMT                                  
If you have any questions send them to:                
e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it     

The trend is your friend, until it bends…

            Anyone reading these articles the past few weeks has seen some major bull markets unfold before their eyes. As an actual futures trader I can attest to the quicker pulse my heart has been beating to while trading these markets. I think a large part of this commodity rally has actually been fueled by money leaving stocks and entering an already hot up trending commodity rally. 

            Let’s have a recap on what we have looked at in recent weeks.

• Jan 25 - Natural Gas set to rally … will likely exceed $9.00 –natural gas recently approached 10
• Feb 1  - Oats at Major top – Never confirmed by follow through
• Feb 8  - Triple Digit Crude to come again – crude trading above 105
• Feb 15 - Rally expected for British Pound – clear break upwards
• Feb 22 - 10 year T-notes riding an overbought trend
• Feb 29 - Grain markets approaching the end of their trends – major reversals this  past week
  

As you can see it has been an exciting time, and the charts have been my best ally in spotting market moves. So where are we now? As you all know from reading the past articles, I don’t like to fight the trend – I think it’s a losing game. So what to do when the trend is up, but over bought? Crude, Natural Gas, the pound and 10 year notes have all exploded higher in recent weeks. That encompasses practically all the commodity sectors that I follow. I am not ready to say that they will fall from here because despite their over bought state, the trend is still up and an uptrend can make a fool of anyone trying to call a top as anyone who tried to short soybean in the past year can tell you (although the top mentioned in last weeks article appears to be in – everyone breaks their own rule sometimes). So if the trends are up but over bought, it is time to sit on your hands and wait for the charts to present clearer signals to act upon.  

            An uptrend still enforce but over extended can continue to climb higher, but risks are increased and chances of success diminish f you try to chase a rally by buying past correct buy points. You have to know when to fold them, and

I’m waiting for a better hand. Enjoy the up trends if you are long, but don’t be blinded by greed.           

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer

TradeSystemGuru.com obtains information from sources deemed to be reliable;
however, TradeSystemGuru.com does not guarantee the accuracy of any of the
information provided. TradeSystemGuru.com makes no warranties, expressed
or implied, as to the fitness of the information for any purpose, or to results
obtained by individuals using the information. We may or may not be invested
in any investments cited above.

In no event shall TradeSystemGuru.com. be liable for direct, indirect, or incidental
damages resulting from the use of the information found on or distributed through
this website. TradeSystemGuru.com shall be indemnified and held harmless from
any actions, claims, proceedings, or liabilities with respect to the information
and its use. TradeSystemGuru.com does not make specific trading recommendations
or provide individualized market advice. All information provided is only to be
construed as opinions and to be used as an information service only. We encourage
investors to contact a registered securities representative prior to making any
investment or related decisions.